tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Rapid City via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 70%

  1. 12:19 PHX → 16:55 DFW
    AA 1648 · American · 2h 36m · 74% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 3h 08m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:03 DFW → 21:32 RAP
    AA 3567 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 29m · 75% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 143 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 08m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip8h 13mPHX 12:19 to RAP 21:32, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.