tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Dayton via Chicago: arrives on time 92%

  1. 05:15 PHL → 06:38 ORD
    AA 1652 · American · 2h 23m · 83% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 2h 57m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:35 ORD → 11:59 DAY
    AA 3786 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 24m · 100% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 132 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 57m layover.
Arrives on time92%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (100%).
Total trip6h 44mPHL 05:15 to DAY 11:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.