tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Memphis via Charlotte: arrives on time 45%

  1. 19:35 PHL → 21:38 CLT
    AA 1661 · American · 2h 03m · 71% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 12m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:50 CLT → 23:38 MEM
    AA 2392 · American · 1h 49m · 64% on time, 1.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 27 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 12m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (1.3% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip5h 04mPHL 19:35 to MEM 23:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.