tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Knoxville via Charlotte: arrives on time 28%

  1. 19:35 PHL → 21:38 CLT
    AA 1661 · American · 2h 03m · 71% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:38 CLT → 23:49 TYS
    AA 5511 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 12m · 44% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (44%).
Total trip4h 15mPHL 19:35 to TYS 23:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.