tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Los Angeles: arrives on time 63%

  1. 07:15 PHX → 08:50 LAX
    AA 1668 · American · 1h 34m · 89% on time, 0.8% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:36 LAX → 15:06 XNA
    AA 6381 · American, flown by SkyWest · 3h 30m · 93% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time63%First flight not cancelled (0.8% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (93%).
Total trip5h 51mPHX 07:15 to XNA 15:06, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.