tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Dayton via Washington: arrives on time 39%

  1. 13:20 ORD → 16:25 DCA
    AA 1675 · American · 2h 05m · 59% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:38 DCA → 19:22 DAY
    AA 5162 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 44m · 57% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dayton is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip5h 02mORD 13:20 to DAY 19:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.