tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Wilmington via Washington: arrives on time 32%

  1. 13:20 ORD → 16:25 DCA
    AA 1675 · American · 2h 05m · 59% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 16m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:41 DCA → 19:14 ILM
    AA 5229 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 36m · 51% on time, 11.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (Wilmington is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection76%The first flight arrived more than 31 minutes late on 24% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 16m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (76%) × second flight not cancelled (11.3% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip4h 57mORD 13:20 to ILM 19:14, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.