tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Newark via Charlotte: arrives on time 52%

  1. 10:06 PHX → 17:30 CLT
    AA 1678 · American · 4h 24m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:21 CLT → 20:30 EWR
    AA 1071 · American · 2h 09m · 68% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection80%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 20% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (80%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip7h 24mPHX 10:06 to EWR 20:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.