tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Phoenix via Philadelphia: arrives on time 40%

  1. 13:45 MIA → 16:43 PHL
    AA 1684 · American · 2h 58m · 75% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:30 PHL → 19:37 PHX
    AA 1984 · American · 5h 07m · 64% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip8h 52mMIA 13:45 to PHX 19:37, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.