tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Hebron via Philadelphia: arrives on time 42%

  1. 13:45 MIA → 16:43 PHL
    AA 1684 · American · 2h 58m · 75% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 PHL → 19:42 CVG
    AA 5534 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 02m · 64% on time, 6.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (6.5% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip5h 57mMIA 13:45 to CVG 19:42, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.