tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Washington via Columbus: arrives on time 36%

  1. 08:54 PHX → 15:47 CMH
    AA 1689 · American · 3h 58m · 68% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Columbus (CMH) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:38 CMH → 18:17 DCA
    AA 5135 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 39m · 78% on time, 12.2% cancelled

Total trip 6h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (12.2% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip6h 23mPHX 08:54 to DCA 18:17, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.