Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Tulsa via Chicago: arrives on time 45%

  1. 14:11 LGA → 16:00 ORD
    AA 1705 · American · 2h 54m · 66% on time, 6.9% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:59 ORD → 19:05 TUL
    AA 3827 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 06m · 77% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (6.9% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip5h 54mLGA 14:11 to TUL 19:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.