Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
New York → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Chicago: arrives on time 40%
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14:11 LGA → 16:00 ORDAA 1705 · American · 2h 54m · 66% on time, 6.9% cancelled
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1h 00m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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17:00 ORD → 19:01 XNAAA 3846 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 01m · 69% on time, 7.1% cancelled
Total trip 5h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (6.9% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (7.1% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip5h 50mLGA 14:11 to XNA 19:01, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.