tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Charlotte → Buffalo via New York: arrives on time 36%

  1. 16:30 CLT → 18:29 LGA
    AA 1722 · American · 2h 03m · 54% on time, 2.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:29 LGA → 21:07 BUF
    AA 4521 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 38m · 74% on time, 6.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (2.5% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (6.7% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip4h 37mCLT 16:30 to BUF 21:07, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.