tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → St Louis via Chicago: arrives on time 27%

  1. 17:57 DEN → 22:00 ORD
    AA 1734 · American · 2h 59m · 54% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:00 ORD → 00:16 STL +1 day
    AA 1004 · American · 1h 16m · 58% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h ahead of Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip5h 19mDEN 17:57 to STL 00:16, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.