tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Madison via Chicago: arrives on time 33%

  1. 17:57 DEN → 22:00 ORD
    AA 1734 · American · 2h 59m · 54% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:00 ORD → 00:10 MSN +1 day
    AA 3728 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 10m · 74% on time, 10.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h ahead of Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (10.0% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip5h 13mDEN 17:57 to MSN 00:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.