tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Nashville via Philadelphia: arrives on time 34%

  1. 11:40 ORD → 14:54 PHL
    AA 1743 · American · 2h 14m · 74% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:41 PHL → 17:01 BNA
    AA 1505 · American · 2h 20m · 60% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip5h 21mORD 11:40 to BNA 17:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.