tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Las Vegas via Philadelphia: arrives on time 56%

  1. 11:40 ORD → 14:54 PHL
    AA 1743 · American · 2h 14m · 74% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:55 PHL → 18:22 LAS
    AA 3040 · American · 5h 27m · 77% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 8h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip8h 42mORD 11:40 to LAS 18:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.