tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Richmond via Philadelphia: arrives on time 40%

  1. 11:40 ORD → 14:54 PHL
    AA 1743 · American · 2h 14m · 74% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:40 PHL → 17:03 RIC
    AA 5895 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 23m · 71% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip4h 23mORD 11:40 to RIC 17:03, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.