tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Manchester via Philadelphia: arrives on time 54%

  1. 11:40 ORD → 14:54 PHL
    AA 1743 · American · 2h 14m · 74% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 2h 36m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:30 PHL → 19:06 MHT
    AA 5942 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 36m · 61% on time, 6.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival (Manchester is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 111 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 36m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (6.5% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip6h 26mORD 11:40 to MHT 19:06, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.