tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Dayton via Chicago: arrives on time 45%

  1. 12:34 DEN → 16:31 ORD
    AA 1744 · American · 2h 57m · 76% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 4h 08m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:39 ORD → 23:01 DAY
    AA 4972 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 22m · 48% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 8h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dayton is 2 h ahead of Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 203 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 4h 08m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip8h 27mDEN 12:34 to DAY 23:01, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.