tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Traverse City via Chicago: arrives on time 48%

  1. 09:08 DEN → 12:56 ORD
    AA 1747 · American · 2h 48m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:44 ORD → 16:06 TVC
    AA 4903 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 22m · 74% on time, 6.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 2 h ahead of Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 34 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (6.0% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip4h 58mDEN 09:08 to TVC 16:06, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.