tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Reno via Phoenix: arrives on time 53%

  1. 12:15 DEN → 13:08 PHX
    AA 1757 · American · 1h 53m · 82% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:57 PHX → 15:51 RNO
    AA 4165 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 54m · 79% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 1 h behind Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip4h 36mDEN 12:15 to RNO 15:51, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.