tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Birmingham via Philadelphia: arrives on time 43%

  1. 15:13 DEN → 20:59 PHL
    AA 1759 · American · 3h 46m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:05 PHL → 23:40 BHM
    AA 5402 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 35m · 75% on time, 7.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h ahead of Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (7.3% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip7h 27mDEN 15:13 to BHM 23:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.