tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Buffalo via Philadelphia: arrives on time 53%

  1. 15:13 DEN → 20:59 PHL
    AA 1759 · American · 3h 46m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 21m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:20 PHL → 23:53 BUF
    AA 5911 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 33m · 82% on time, 4.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 2 h ahead of Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 36 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 21m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (4.4% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip6h 40mDEN 15:13 to BUF 23:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.