tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Asheville via Philadelphia: arrives on time 35%

  1. 15:13 DEN → 20:59 PHL
    AA 1759 · American · 3h 46m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 PHL → 23:58 AVL
    AA 6093 · American, flown by Piedmont · 2h 08m · 76% on time, 13.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Asheville is 2 h ahead of Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 25 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (13.8% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip6h 45mDEN 15:13 to AVL 23:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.