tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Boston → Louisville via Philadelphia: arrives on time 78%

  1. 15:06 BOS → 16:44 PHL
    AA 1776 · American · 1h 38m · 72% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 54m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:38 PHL → 23:03 SDF
    AA 4466 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 25m · 86% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 25 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 189 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 54m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip7h 57mBOS 15:06 to SDF 23:03, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.