tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Buffalo via Boston: arrives on time 41%

  1. 17:30 PHL → 18:57 BOS
    AA 1776 · American · 1h 27m · 64% on time, 4.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Boston (BOS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:00 BOS → 21:50 BUF
    AA 4616 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 50m · 72% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (4.4% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip4h 20mPHL 17:30 to BUF 21:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.