tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Manchester via Washington: arrives on time 29%

  1. 17:56 ORD → 20:59 DCA
    AA 1787 · American · 2h 04m · 55% on time, 8.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 12m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:11 DCA → 23:48 MHT
    AA 5283 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 37m · 58% on time, 10.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Manchester is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 27 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 12m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (8.1% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (10.3% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip4h 52mORD 17:56 to MHT 23:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.