tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Des Moines via Washington: arrives on time 33%

  1. 17:56 ORD → 20:59 DCA
    AA 1787 · American · 2h 04m · 55% on time, 8.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:00 DCA → 23:50 DSM
    AA 5432 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 50m · 70% on time, 9.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (8.1% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (9.3% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip5h 54mORD 17:56 to DSM 23:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.