tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Nashville via Washington: arrives on time 42%

  1. 17:56 ORD → 20:59 DCA
    AA 1787 · American · 2h 04m · 55% on time, 8.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:00 DCA → 23:01 BNA
    AA 4686 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 01m · 85% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 23 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (8.1% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip5h 05mORD 17:56 to BNA 23:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.