tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Indianapolis via Philadelphia: arrives on time 39%

  1. 12:55 PHX → 20:41 PHL
    AA 1803 · American · 4h 46m · 54% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 19m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:00 PHL → 23:57 IND +1 day
    AA 1247 · American · 2h 02m · 66% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 34 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 19m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip8h 07mPHX 12:55 to IND 23:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.