tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Nashville via Philadelphia: arrives on time 24%

  1. 12:55 PHX → 20:41 PHL
    AA 1803 · American · 4h 46m · 54% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 PHL → 22:46 BNA
    AA 2277 · American · 2h 16m · 62% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection41%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 59% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (41%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip7h 51mPHX 12:55 to BNA 22:46, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.