tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Chicago via Philadelphia: arrives on time 23%

  1. 12:55 PHX → 20:41 PHL
    AA 1803 · American · 4h 46m · 54% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:32 PHL → 23:30 ORD
    AA 3042 · American · 2h 58m · 63% on time, 13.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection43%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 57% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (43%) × second flight not cancelled (13.9% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip8h 35mPHX 12:55 to ORD 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.