tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Louisville via Philadelphia: arrives on time 73%

  1. 06:01 TPA → 08:39 PHL
    AA 1806 · American · 2h 38m · 97% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:31 PHL → 11:47 SDF
    AA 5915 · American, flown by Piedmont · 2h 16m · 81% on time, 3.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time73%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (3.6% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip5h 46mTPA 06:01 to SDF 11:47, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.