tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Sacramento via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 23%

  1. 17:10 EWR → 20:10 DFW
    AA 1810 · American · 4h 00m · 47% on time, 9.9% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:59 DFW → 22:33 SMF
    AA 3314 · American · 3h 34m · 59% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 8h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection43%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 57% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (9.9% are) × connection made (43%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip8h 23mEWR 17:10 to SMF 22:33, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.