tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Santa Ana via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 30%

  1. 17:10 EWR → 20:10 DFW
    AA 1810 · American · 4h 00m · 47% on time, 9.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:16 DFW → 22:24 SNA
    AA 348 · American · 3h 08m · 74% on time, 6.7% cancelled

Total trip 8h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 34 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (9.9% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (6.7% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip8h 14mEWR 17:10 to SNA 22:24, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.