tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Wilmington via Charlotte: arrives on time 44%

  1. 19:29 EWR → 21:32 CLT
    AA 1811 · American · 2h 03m · 61% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 CLT → 23:49 ILM
    AA 1017 · American · 1h 08m · 72% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip4h 19mEWR 19:29 to ILM 23:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.