tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → San Jose via Phoenix: arrives on time 37%

  1. 17:29 EWR → 19:51 PHX
    AA 1816 · American · 5h 22m · 63% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:51 PHX → 22:41 SJC
    AA 1197 · American · 1h 50m · 62% on time, 1.3% cancelled

Total trip 8h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (1.3% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip8h 12mEWR 17:29 to SJC 22:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.