tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Los Angeles via Phoenix: arrives on time 33%

  1. 17:29 EWR → 19:51 PHX
    AA 1816 · American · 5h 22m · 63% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:38 PHX → 22:07 LAX
    AA 3204 · American · 1h 29m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection51%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 49% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (51%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip7h 38mEWR 17:29 to LAX 22:07, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.