tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Rapid City via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 83%

  1. 00:36 PHX → 05:09 DFW
    AA 1818 · American · 2h 33m · 81% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 3h 11m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:20 DFW → 09:47 RAP
    AA 3768 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 27m · 90% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 8h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 146 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 11m layover.
Arrives on time83%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip8h 11mPHX 00:36 to RAP 09:47, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.