tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Wilmington via Charlotte: arrives on time 50%

  1. 13:30 EWR → 15:34 CLT
    AA 1819 · American · 2h 04m · 80% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:24 CLT → 17:41 ILM
    AA 6116 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 17m · 71% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip4h 11mEWR 13:30 to ILM 17:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.