tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Miami via Philadelphia: arrives on time 40%

  1. 17:07 ORD → 20:25 PHL
    AA 1848 · American · 2h 18m · 59% on time, 4.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 30m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:55 PHL → 00:52 MIA +1 day
    AA 2936 · American · 2h 57m · 61% on time, 8.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 45 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 30m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (4.3% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip6h 45mORD 17:07 to MIA 00:52, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.