tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Dulles via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 33%

  1. 11:24 SFO → 17:14 DFW
    AA 1849 · American · 3h 50m · 45% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 30m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:44 DFW → 22:46 IAD
    AA 1132 · American · 3h 08m · 47% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 8h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 45 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 30m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip8h 28mSFO 11:24 to IAD 22:46, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.