tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Bozeman via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 36%

  1. 11:24 SFO → 17:14 DFW
    AA 1849 · American · 3h 50m · 45% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 21m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:35 DFW → 20:43 BZN
    AA 1774 · American · 3h 08m · 56% on time, 4.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 36 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 21m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (4.9% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip8h 19mSFO 11:24 to BZN 20:43, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.