tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → St Louis via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 16%

  1. 11:24 SFO → 17:14 DFW
    AA 1849 · American · 3h 50m · 45% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:01 DFW → 19:52 STL
    AA 2761 · American · 1h 51m · 56% on time, 6.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection30%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 70% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (30%) × second flight not cancelled (6.0% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip6h 28mSFO 11:24 to STL 19:52, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.