tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Newark via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 28%

  1. 11:24 SFO → 17:14 DFW
    AA 1849 · American · 3h 50m · 45% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:19 DFW → 22:59 EWR
    AA 2999 · American · 3h 40m · 55% on time, 8.5% cancelled

Total trip 8h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (8.5% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip8h 35mSFO 11:24 to EWR 22:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.