tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Philadelphia via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 30%

  1. 11:24 SFO → 17:14 DFW
    AA 1849 · American · 3h 50m · 45% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 21m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:35 DFW → 22:57 PHL
    AA 3242 · American · 3h 22m · 47% on time, 5.7% cancelled

Total trip 8h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 36 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 21m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (5.7% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip8h 33mSFO 11:24 to PHL 22:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.