tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Aspen via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 45%

  1. 11:24 SFO → 17:14 DFW
    AA 1849 · American · 3h 50m · 45% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 38m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:52 DFW → 20:17 ASE
    AA 6419 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 25m · 61% on time, 4.1% cancelled

Total trip 7h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection77%The first flight arrived more than 53 minutes late on 23% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 38m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (77%) × second flight not cancelled (4.1% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip7h 53mSFO 11:24 to ASE 20:17, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.