tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fort Lauderdale → San Francisco via Philadelphia: arrives on time 26%

  1. 15:57 FLL → 18:53 PHL
    AA 1855 · American · 2h 56m · 52% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:46 PHL → 23:10 SFO
    AA 3166 · American · 6h 24m · 57% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 10h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip10h 13mFLL 15:57 to SFO 23:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.